I am no one special but I do know a few things about games. I have been following the game industry since playing Atari. I understand the market and read most of the books out there. I even got a chance to meet and drink beer with some of the tech heads I personally know from the C-Net offices.

Nintendo has spent a great deal of time analyzing the 85% of the non-gaming market. They made a deliberate and calculated attempt to not take over the gaming market but extend it. The next question will now be "How can Nintendo sustain that growth with these non-gamers?".

Sony and Microsoft has decided to stay safe to capitalize on the current market - You. They believe we have deep enough pockets to cover their online gaming services, game sales, peripherals, and other licensed goodies. Obviously, the limitation of this approach is bound only by the gamers' wallets. Nintendo understands that we are the 15% that has always driven this market for a long time and they are not stupid enough to ignore the consistent purchase power of the "hardcore" gaming market. Retro-game downloads, news clips or weather forcasting will not make a difference in the big picture.

Nintendo knows they can blow the whole thing open but they are shooting themselves in the foot with two things.

1. Continued Wii shortages
2. Developer support for the Wii's interface

Nintendo is continuing to leave money on the table with the shortages but some analysts are speculating that the shortages were deliberate just so they can set their numbers for the end of their fiscal year (which is April 1st). It's now June, and there are still shortages and if the demand is still as good as evidenced in the five-to-one article I would convince more developers to create content for the system.

This leads to the next problem - Developer support.

Nintendo has probably one of the most cheapest development kits around but their developer documentation and usage is either lacking or hard to use. At least, that's the impression I'm getting from comments and postings in game developer forums.

The Wii's new interface has incredible potential but its biggest hurdle is getting developers up to speed to develop for this interface.

Let's also get one thing straight. Game studios really care about their bottom line. The hardcore market has (or is willing to have) the funds to buy a 360 and/or PS3. In this scenario, developers know exactly what kind of buyers they are dealing with. They know their tendencies and their expectations. Because of this, upper management of game studios know their game will sell based on the sales of their competition.

While the demand for games remains high, the supply of the games remain low which doesn't leave much for the hardcore market to shop for.

The hardcore market then segments into two other groups:

1. The people that have enough money to buy more than one system.
2. The people that have enough money to buy one system.

"The people that have enough to buy one system" are usually comprised of fanboys or people who simply don't have enough money. Some have claimed to have sold their Wii to move to a PS3 and/or 360 because of the Wii's lacking library. Nintendo knows this but I don't think they care. I think Nintendo is confident that the #2 group of that hardcore market will come back once more prominent games are released like Smash Bros or Metroid. Nintendo has opened the gaming market to more casual gamers but, at the same time, they have created a void with the hardcore market. I think Nintendo's overall goal is being the common denominator for all types of gamers. They want the Wii to sit next to the PS3 and/or 360 as friends in your living room. As long as those popular franchises stay with Nintendo, they're not worried.

I hope this changes after E3 because that, my friends, really bugs me.